What are the different arbitrage strategies that are used?

posted on May 27, 2021

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Well, first of all, triangular arb isn't what you call a "statistical arb". Triangular arb is "pure arbitrage", meaning that free money exists in a given time frame, assuming you can fill all three trades at once.

Statistical arbitrage, as the name indicates, is based on some kind of statistics. The word "arbitrage" get's thrown around a lot and it doesn't necessarily mean anything out of context.

Simplest thing is to assume that you have a co-integration between two instruments, say A and B. You believe A is relatively overvalued and/or B is relatively undervalued. Therefore you short A and/or go long in B, expecting them to converge over time. Depending on your strategy, parameters or instruments, that may take seconds, hours, days or weeks to happen.

A/B can be literally anything, so just from the top of my head:

  • Silver futures vs silver miners. One can expect that the price of silver and silver miners earnings (and therefore stock price) are correlated.
  • Old crop / new crop futures spread in wheat. You can look at the historical price difference between last futures before the crop and first month after the crop has arrived.
  • LIFFE vs MATIF wheat futures have different specifications. You can look at the historical relation and if the price difference diverges to some significance, you'll take a position expecting it to revert.
  • "Upstream/Downstream" and Crack spreads. Oil refineries don't care about price of oil and distillates as much as they care about their profits. So you'd expect them to hedge their "crack spread" and you can take positions, expecting it to revert to some certain level when it's too out of whack. Read more here - Crack spread

  • .
  • Pepsi (PEP) vs Coca-Cola (KO) stocks. Similar companies, similar business etc. One would expect that the companies should be valued somewhat similarly, unusual circumstances set aside.
  • This can go into a form of index arbitrage as well. One set/basket of stocks against an index or a sector. Financial sector vs SPX, consumer discretionary vs cons staples, Wells Fargo Bank vs Financial sector.
  • Equities (S&P500 index) vs Volatility (reversed). One might think that out of the earnings season, rising equity markets mean lower volatility and vice versa. You can throw government yields, credit or whatever in the list, as long as it's something macro.
  • Volatility arbitrage is basically a statistical arbitrage as well. You'll have a delta neutral option portfolio against the underlying.
  • Credit arbitrage, basis arbitrage etc.


There are literally millions of possibilities, these were just the few that popped into my mind. Some of them aren't available for retail investors, some of them are too insignificant for "big boys" to chase.

Then there are ways to exploit a correlation or a co-integration when you can trade only one instrument. From the top of my head - how do sun activity and corn crop correlate? Can you predict anything which is statistically significant?

I'll give a more realistic example: I've traded DAX30 index (via options or futures) based on a model of other risk assets (it's old enough now to share). Basically there is a model consisting of macroeconomic factors that should indicate the "fair value" of DAX30 index intraday. On this graph: during the mid-day the index was levitating higher than the model indicated on a low volume, so there existed an opportunity to short. There you have it - "statistical arbitrage" based on some statistics and needs some time to pass in order to work. What goes into the model, how is it calculated, how do you test it before you put anything on the line etc is up to you to figure out. I'm just giving a sample.

 


Then there are some forms of "pure arb" which exist for longer time periods than few nanoseconds until HFT guys clear that. PTM and PGM are both basically platinum ETFs. Sometimes they are out of whack for no apparent reason:

 

What are the best forms of arbitrage?

posted on May 27, 2021

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Arbitrage is a term used to describe the purchase of a product which is then immediately sold to make a profit. Arbitrage is popular in the stock market or as a means to make profit from goods being sold at differing prices in varying markets. A person who uses arbitrage is called an arbitrageur.

A very simple example would be :

Target is selling ABC DVD for $10. However, on Amazon.com the last 20 copies of ABC DVD have sold for between $30 and $45. A consumer could go to Target and purchase the copies of the movie, then sell them on Amazon for a profit of $20 to $35 per DVD.

While this is a simple version of arbitrage, it should be noted that in small volume deals such as this, it is unlikely that the consumer would be able to make a long term profit for the following reasons:

  1. Target could run out of inventory on ABC DVD.
  2. Target could raise the price on the remaining copies because of the increased demand.
  3. The supply of ABC DVDs could increase on Amazon resulting in a price drop.

A bit complex arbitrage

  • The exchange rate in London is £5 = $1000 while the exchange rate in the U.S. is $1000 = £6. Converting the cash in one country, and then in another country in order to maximize on the exchange rate would be arbitrage.
  • Arbitrage exists in sports betting. When bookmakers offer various odds it opens the opportunity for betters to spread their cash out among different bookmakers in order take the best odds on each and cover any possible win or lose circumstance. This tactic often results in a small profit, but can be much more at times.
  • Global labor arbitrage is the term that describes what is well known as “offshoring.” This is when manufacturing jobs are moved to countries with lower wages thereby saving the corporation a large amount of money in payroll costs.
  • Exchange Traded Funds : traded in the stock market, are also a means for an arbitrageur to make a profit. Participants in exchange traded funds exchange shares in underlying securities as well as in the fund. This is different than the sale of other mutual funds since it does not promote shares being bought or sold with the fund sponsor. Prices are set by demand; and, when a drastic premium of the assets occurs, the underlying securities can be bought, converted and then sold in the open market. Similarly when a drastic discount exists, the security will be sold .